Sunday, February 13, 2011

Standard Chartered Bank China's new jobs last year, over twice the official data

 The next decade or two decades, China's actual economic growth potential from the current 10% -11% to 5% -8% slower interval. Slow down the speed will depend on the changes to the factors mentioned above, and the service could open labor market rigidities and improve the level of the total tax burden.

 Chinese Entrepreneurs Network Feb. 10, Standard Chartered Bank released entitled 2000-2500 million, more than twice the number of official information.

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China reported that China's employment statistics was poor. 2010, official statistics show the number of urban employment in China 300 million people, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, the annual 11.7 million new jobs, only a limited reference.

current official unemployment statistics only cover registered unemployed persons, so not including about 180 million migrant workers, not including those not registered as unemployed urban workers. In addition, failure to keep up with the official employment survey the rapid development of private employment.

report, CASS scholars Yang, Wang Meiyan make use of the country in 2004 and 2008 economic census data for estimating method of new jobs, economic census provides the most comprehensive available on the manufacturing industry and service sector employment. Inspired, Standard Chartered Bank estimates that by 2010, the new jobs are likely to reach about 25 million, is officially estimated at 11.7 million, more than twice. The results of Yang and Wang Meiyan also have to do in 2009 consistent with the prediction.

report also said that jobs increased faster than population growth rate of new labor force, this situation will worsen in 2010-2020, the growth slowdown in China's labor force (and becomes negative growth) will China's economic growth potential negative impact. But three factors will support the potential economic growth: education to improve the quality of the labor / productivity is improved; urbanization and rising savings rate, capital accumulation rate will slow down but not significantly decreased; total factor productivity growth will slow, but will remain relatively high.

Standard Chartered Bank expects the next decade or two decades, China's actual economic growth potential from the current 10% -11% to 5% -8% slower interval. Slow down the speed will depend on the changes to the factors mentioned above, and the service could open labor market rigidities and improve the level of the total tax burden.

existing risks, the government may be too concerned about job creation and quality of data - which will focus on improving economic growth even more than the economy itself is tolerable. China will soon no longer need to 8% of the official economic growth target, maintaining the original goals of economic growth will generate inflation.

report analysis, wage growth and GDP growth remain very basic level, or slightly higher than the GDP growth rate is desirable - and not cause inflation. This is the experience of most other economies, the situation - rising wages, but does not cause inflation. However, if the growth target set too high, overheating of the real economy will be great harm.

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